International steel market continues to adjust

In the first half of July, the international steel market was first suppressed and then raised. In the middle of the month, the global steel benchmark price index of 123.7 points rose by 0.3% on a week-on-week basis. Among them: flat steel index was 116.4 points, up 0.1% on a week-on-week basis (up from down); long product index was 131.8 points, up 0.6% on a week-on-week basis (up from down); Asia index was 125.7% points, down 0.1% on a week-on-week basis ( The decline converges). The China index in Asia was 128.5 points, which was flat on a week-on-week basis (from flat to flat); the Americas index was 143.3 points, down 0.2% on a week-on-week basis (from ups and downs); the European index was 107.3 points, up 1.4% on a week-on-week basis. Based on the market operating situation combined with the fundamentals forecast, the international steel market in the second half of July may continue to fluctuate.

Posco is the “most competitive steel company in the world”. On June 26, World Steel Dynamics (WSD) released the annual list of “World's Most Competitive Steel Companies” at the 33rd Global Steel Survival Strategy Conference. South Korea's Pohang ranked first with 8.37 points (out of 10 points). This is the ninth time that Posco has won this award since 2010.

Asian steel market: ups and downs. The benchmark price index of steel in the region of 125.7 points fell by 0.1% on a week-on-week basis (the decline was converging), which fell by 2.9% month-on-month (expanded increase), up 22.7% year-on-year.

In terms of flat products: market prices have been mixed. In South Korea, just entering July, South Korean cold-rolled flat product manufacturers have announced price increases. Among them, the eastern steel has already set a new price tag, and other companies such as Dongguo Steel and Shiya Group also cooperated to raise prices. According to industry insiders, Eastern Steel has issued a notice to increase the price of all cold rolled flat products by 40,000 won/ton since July 16. Dongkuk Steel and Shiya Group announced that their cold rolled flat products prices will increase by 50,000 won / ton. Manufacturers of cold-rolled flat products said that because they will continue to bear the burden of increased production costs in the middle of the year, manufacturers have to raise prices to overcome current difficulties. Some people expect that although the shipping price of Korean cold-rolled flat products has been confirmed to increase in July, it is still difficult to make up for the losses of some producers, so additional price increases may be difficult to avoid. However, there are also people who believe that the continued weakening of steel demand in the Korean domestic market, coupled with consumer resistance to price increases, may hinder a substantial increase in prices, but there must be a certain increase. Therefore, Korean manufacturers of cold-rolled flat products may eventually have to increase processing fees or expand exports as an alternative to price increases. In Japan, the Tokyo market has a hot roll of $732/ton, a cold roll of $805/ton, and a plate of $750/ton, all down $3-6/ton. At the same time, the export price of hot coils was US$630/tonne (FOB), cold coils were US$730/tonne (FOB), galvanized sheets were US$810/ton, and plate was US$680/tonne (FOB), which were generally flat. In the UAE and Saudi Arabia, flat steel import prices have fallen slightly since entering July. As of July 10, the import price of hot rolled CFR in the UAE region was US$610-630/ton, down by US$5-20/ton. Among them: China's hot-rolled CFR onshore is quoted at US$630/ton, India's hot-rolled CFR is quoted at US$610-615/ton; China's cold-rolled CFR is quoted at US$680/ton, and rolled hard-rolled CFR is quoted at US$655-660/ Ton. Some market participants said that although prices have risen, the magnitude is not much in the range of only $5-10/ton. However, the CFR import reference price for hot-dip galvanized coils has increased significantly, from the previous 740-840 US dollars / ton to the current 800-850 US dollars / ton. It is reported that India sold 4,000 tons of 1mm hot-dip galvanized coils to the UAE at a CFR price of $845-850/ton. According to industry insiders, the current large price difference between China and India hot-dip galvanized coils is mainly due to the fact that India's hot-dip galvanized coils have been officially certified by the United Arab Emirates. In Saudi Arabia, the imported hot rolled Indian CFR reference price remains unchanged at $615-620/ton. The price of Indian hot-rolled exports to Saudi Arabia to CFR is around US$615-620/ton, and the price is slightly loose. At the beginning of July, the average export price of China's SS400 3-12mm hot-rolled coils was US$600/tonne (FOB), and the average export price of SPCC 1.0mm cold-rolled coils was US$640/ton, which was roughly the same as the end of last month. The DX51D+Z 1.0mm galvanized coil exports were US$690/ton/ton (FOB), down US$10/ton/ton from the end of last month. In the same period, the price of hot-rolled Southeast Asia imports was US$610/tonne (CFR), down by US$5/ton from the previous period. In Vietnam, on July 10, the commencement ceremony of the Vietnam Shunning and Pellet Project, which was undertaken by China's 19th Metallurgical Group, was held. The project is located in the vast orange economy zone of Vietnam's general province, and is a comprehensive large-scale steel base invested by Vietnam Hefa Group. China 19th Metallurgical Group has undertaken two systems projects of 2*360 square meters of sintering and 1.8 million tons of pellets. Among them, the equipment engineering capacity is 28,000 tons, the steel structure is 4,500 tons, the pipeline is 4,500 tons, the cable is 1,100 kilometers, and the construction period is 335 days.

For long products: market prices are mixed. In Singapore, Singapore's rebar import prices continued to fall due to insufficient demand from downstream end users. However, most local buyers are still willing to maintain their appearance and do not want to place orders. Some Singaporean mills said that due to recent price fluctuations in the Chinese market, it may not be the time for Singapore buyers to get the goods. Recently, the bargaining range of the rebar import market has also declined. The buyer's CFR Singapore bargaining price is mostly at $545-550/ton. The previous bargaining range was at $560/ton, and the mainstream Chinese steel mill FOB China Port was offered at $535-540/ton, equivalent to the CFR Singapore offer of $555-560/ton. However, the CFR Singapore offer for rebar resources from India and Turkey remained high at $565-570/ton. Some market participants said that there is no other country's rebar resources (including futures and inventory resources) appearing in the market recently, so the price is relatively firm. However, due to the uncertainties in the economic development in the coming weeks, foreign steel mills and international traders are interested in lowering their quotations. It is reported that this sentiment has been further strengthened after the recent devaluation of the renminbi. In addition, after the fall to 550 US dollars / ton on July 6, the current reference price of China's rebar FOB export remains at this price. At the beginning of July, the CFR reference price for rebar imports in Southeast Asia (which mainly tracks the price of rebar imported from Singapore to Singapore) was reported at US$550-555/ton, a significant decline from the previous US$560-565/ton. In the same period, the CFR reference price for wire rod imports in Southeast Asia (which mainly tracks the price of wire rods for low-carbon nets exported from China to the Philippines and Vietnam) is reported at US$580-590/ton, which is also higher than the previous offer of US$590-600/ton. Adjustment.

In terms of trade relations: (1) On July 6, the Ministry of Industry and Trade recently issued Decision No. 2398/QD-BCT to impose anti-dumping duties on stainless steel products imported from China, Malaysia, Indonesia and Taiwan. The new anti-dumping tax rate is from July 20, 2018 to October 6, 2019, of which: the tax rate for stainless steel producers in mainland China is 25.35%, but the tax rate of Shanxi Taigang is 17.47%.

Jane: Based on the fundamentals of the Asian market, the Asian steel market in July is expected to continue to rise and fall.

European steel market: shocks rise. The benchmark steel price index of 107.3 in the region rose by 1.4% on a week-on-week basis (increase in the increase), and rose by 1.7% month-on-month (from a fall), up 23.9% year-on-year.

In terms of flat products: market prices continue to rise. In some parts of the European Union, the ex-factory price of hot-rolled coils was US$655/ton, up by US$5/ton from the end of last month. Cold rolled coils were $745/tonne, up $15/ton. The import price of hot rolled coil in the EU is US$645/tonne (CFR), which is US$15/ton higher than before. Cold rolled coil imports prices of $ 730 / ton (CFR), up $ 12 / ton. Galvanized sheet rolls were 759 US dollars / ton, medium plate 678 US dollars / ton, imports in early July were generally the same as before. In Italy, as import prices have picked up, Italian mills have raised their HRC ex-factory prices to €520-530/tonne ($605-617/ton/tonne). Some steel traders said that although the market is deserted, it is difficult to find hot rolled coil offers below 540-545 euros/ton cif. In Germany, the price of hot-dip galvanizing rose by €20/tonne ($23/ton/ton), and some analysts said that we expect to increase by another 30-40 euros/ton by the end of the year. More insiders said that the upward momentum came from the EU's efforts in establishing safeguards. This is "very positive", coupled with strong demand and lack of imports from Asia, steel mills began to try to raise prices. In fact, the price increase has started in June to July, but it has not been universally realized. The long-term contract price is still around 680 euros, but now the steel mills think that the price is about to rise because the hot-dip galvanizing delivery time is extended and the production has been arranged. Until the beginning of December.

For long products: market prices continue to rise. In the European Union, the ex-factory price of rebar is US$620/ton/ton, up by US$30/ton/ton from the end of last month. Rebar imports price of $ 595 / ton (CFR), up $ 10 / ton. In Poland, the transaction price of rebar is basically stable, despite the intentional price increase of its domestic steel mills. But the market price almost maintains the original price. As of July 13, Poland's domestic 12mm B500B rebar weekly reference price remained unchanged at around 2,250-22,30 PLN (US$602-615) per ton. Some insiders said that although some steel mills tried to increase the ex-factory price of their rebar to 2,300-2,380 ton per ton, there was no transaction after the price increase. According to Polish traders, the price increase of some steel mills is 10-15 euros ($12-18) per ton. He also said that no one would be willing to pay more for rebar at this time before the EU made the final decision on import safeguards. In terms of billet. At the beginning of July, the CIS mill was quoted at US$510/tonne (fob Black Sea), down by US$5/ton.

In terms of trade relations: (1) On July 5, the European Commission’s subcommittee on trade defense measures met to discuss temporary defense measures to be taken on European steel imports. It is reported that the temporary defense measures will be implemented from July 17-18, which will include a 25% tariff on all imported steel products based on quotas; (2) Russia Magnitogorsk Steel Plant, Xinli Companies such as Petsky Steel and Northern Steel applied for the Eurasia Economic Commission to initiate anti-dumping investigations on galvanized sheets imported from China and Ukraine. The survey targets hot-dip galvanized cold and hot-rolled sheets and coils with aluminum-zinc coating. The Eurasian Economic Commission also said that in 2017, China and Ukraine's galvanized sheet was exported to the Eurasian Economic Union countries at dumping prices, of which Chinese producers dumped 16.4% and Ukrainian producers 25.6%.

Brief test: According to the operational situation combined with the fundamental situation, the recent European steel market may continue to rise and fall.

American steel market: continued to be strong. The benchmark steel price index of 143.3 in the region fell by 0.2% on a week-on-week basis (from up to down), and rose by 3.8% month-on-month (the increase was converging), up 26.1% year-on-year.

Flat material: The market price has risen steadily. In the United States, the ex-factory price of hot-rolled coils of mainstream steel mills is $1010/ton, which is $10/ton higher than before. The cold rolled coil is priced at $1,120/ton ex-works, which is the same as before. The standard slab ex-factory price is $1,060/ton, up $10/ton. In mid-July, the US import price of hot rolled coil was US$937/ton (CIF imported from the US, including handling fee), which was US$16/ton higher than before. The import price of cold rolled coil is US$1075/ton (CIF imported from the United States, including handling fee), which is US$77/ton. Galvanized coils are $1312/ton and thick plates are $981/ton (US imports of CIF, including handling fees), which is the same as before. According to industry insiders, the price of hot rolled coil in the Midwest of the United States has remained at more than $1,000/ton for a long time. Since October 17, 2008, the price of US steel, represented by hot rolled coil, has once again exceeded $1,000. Tons, it makes sense. Some insiders believe that the reason for the skyrocketing US steel prices this time is: first, the United States imposes a 25% high tariff on imported steel products; secondly, speculative activities fuel the US steel prices; and finally, the demand for the US steel market is strong in 2018. In Brazil, slab export prices fell slightly. The export slab FOB reference price dropped from $580-595/ton last month to $570-585/ton. According to market analysts, the price decline is due to the fact that foreign buyers continue to lower prices for more favorable prices. On the other hand, Brazilian steel mills have given lower offers in order to win orders from the United States.

In terms of long products: market prices have risen steadily. In the United States, the price of rebar imported in major regions in mid-July was $753/tonne (CIF includes handling fee), up $3/ton from the previous period. Net wire 827 US dollars / ton (CIF), up 149 US dollars / ton. Small section steel 728 yuan / ton (CIF), roughly the same as before.

In terms of trade relations: (1) On June 26, the US Department of Commerce announced a countervailing preliminary ruling on cast iron sewer pipes imported from China: the subsidy rate of Yuncheng Jixian Development Zone Hengtong Foundry Co., Ltd. was 13.11%, Dalian Jinwei The subsidy rate of the Pipe Industry Co., Ltd. is 111.20%, and the subsidy rate of other Chinese producers and exporters is 13.11%; (2) On July 3, the General Administration of International Trade Practices of the Mexican Ministry of Economic Affairs issued a resolution in the official daily report, the decision was over. The anti-dumping investigation on the hexagonal plated steel wire mesh originating in China maintains an anti-dumping duty of 0.45 USD/kg on the products involved. It will be valid for 5 years from July 25, 2017.

Jane test: According to the operating situation combined with the fundamental situation, the recent US steel market may continue to strengthen.